We’ve been writing quite a bit recently about the doom-and-gloom mentality that’s gripping the retail community:

• Black Friday Predictions
• The Litany of Retail Woe: 50 Chains Shutting Stores
• 2009 Holiday Retail Forecast: “It’s Going To Be a Disaster.”
  A depressed shopping season may lead to a transformation of consumer behavior — and the disappearance of several brand-name retailers.
• Insight: Holiday Humbug
  Will the Grinch steal retail’s favorite season?

Well, after the jump, we’re taking a quick look ’round the Web for early results of this year’s Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving that’s traditionally seen as the start of the holiday-shopping season. The consensus seems to be that there isn’t any consensus: Having lowered expectations to such a degree, retailers are perhaps getting a bit of good ink for notching a measly 3 percent bump.

In the aftermath, retailers are already steeling themselves for “Cyber Monday,” the online equivalent of “door-buster” sales. (And there’s a phrase, btw, that will have to be retired, following the tragic death Friday of a Wal-Mart employee who was trampled by a sale-crazed mob at a mall on Long Island.)

Toys: No Must-Haves This Holiday Season (BusinessWeek)

http://snurl.com/bw1126

Retailers are trying to create excitement in the absence of a coveted plaything like Tickle Me Elmo or Nintendo’s Wii

…nearly every year certain “must-have” toys emerge that spur parents to camp outside stores and then, at the crack of dawn, to stampede inside for a chance to snag the coveted plaything for the Christmas tree. Think Cabbage Patch Kids, Tickle Me Elmo, and Nintendo’s Wii. This year, as many consumers watch their homes and 401(k) accounts shrink dramatically in value, the must-have toy may go the way of the dodo…

Sears.com Melts Down On Black Friday, But Costco, Walmart, Saks and Kmart Have Issues, Too (StorefrontBacktalk.com)

http://snurl.com/storefront1128

Sears.com suffered the worst Web problems on Black Friday (Nov. 28), experiencing a series of complete site crashes for much of the day. Although no other major retailer came close, according to preliminary reports, many of the industry’s largest merchants suffered site slowdowns or other Web problems, including Walmart, Kmart, Saks, Overstock, Amazon, Target, Kohl’s, Costco and Buy.com.

[The site also reported the following anecdotal reports during Friday's shopping hours:]

• Hallmark.com is down…
• Walmart.com had a slower-than-usual response time, perhaps due to scheduled maintenance to reflect Black Friday pricing
• Overstock.com, normally quite reliable, was responding at 1/4th its usual speed
• SaksFifthAvenue reporting uneven response times, and intermittent problems
• Barnes and Noble was having trouble from 11am until noon, EST
• Sears.com reporting it’s swamped with shoppers, at http://www.sears.com/sitedown/busy.htm.

Black Friday Turnout: No Miracle on 34th Street (Time)

http://snurl.com/time1128

The Black Friday shopping frenzy was palpable in midtown Manhattan on Friday as dozens of clothing retailers touted their “door buster” sales of 50% or more off everything from diamond jewelry to cotton hoodies. Crowds even broke one of the doors at Macy’s Men’s Store. That paled in comparison to the death of a Wal-Mart worker in Long Island who reportedly got trampled to death by bargain hunters. But by mid-morning on 34th Street, many stores were half empty and some sales staff said they had noticed that shoppers were holding back this year.

Holiday sales view still weak after weekend rush (Reuters)

http://snurl.com/reuters1130

Early results from the Black Friday weekend showed that sales grew both in stores and online, fueled by repeat trips, heavier online sales and deep discounts from retailers. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), shoppers spent an average of 7.2 percent more per person to nearly $373 during the four-day holiday weekend from U.S. Thanksgiving on Thursday through Sunday. Total spending was $41 billion…. U.S. stores are facing what could be the weakest sales season in nearly two decades as shoppers contend with falling home values, reduced access to credit and a weak job market. Holiday shopping can account for up to 40 percent of a retailer’s annual revenue…. ShopperTrak, which tracks customer traffic, said Black Friday sales rose 3 percent to $10.6 billion. That was slower than an 8.3 percent rise in 2007.

[and, despite BusinessWeek's prediction to the contrary...]

Wii leads the way on healthy Black Friday (CNET)

http://snurl.com/cnet1130

Black Friday proved to be a relatively bright light in an economy largely characterized by dark, gloomy reports…. Taking the crown as the top product of the day was the Nintendo Wii, according to both PriceGrabber and online commerce giant eBay, which pulled data from its namesake site and other eBay-owned sites including PayPal and Shopping.com…. Despite the good returns from Black Friday, no one seemed eager to predict continued economic cheer through the rest of the holiday season.

Solid Start to Holiday Shopping, but Discounts Threaten Profits (New York Times)

http://snurl.com/nyt1201

“There is a sense of desperation among retailers,” said Hana Ben-Shabat, a partner in A. T. Kearney’s retail practice, “because everybody knows consumers are very stretched.” As Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for the NPD Group, put it: “This weekend was like having a huge party and just hoping anybody shows up.”
One last note:
In Media and Retailers Both Built Black Friday (New York Times) – http://snurl.com/nyt1130 – David Carr suggests that the media is as much at fault for the furor behind the tragedy at Wal-Mart as the retail industry, and that it’s hypocritical for newspapers in particular to write scathing editorials bemoaning the behavior they were all-too-happy to help espouse in full-page ads leading up to the event. (The Times’ coverage of the Wal-Mart trampling is here.)

[UPDATE, 12/1/08, 1p ET: Added link below.]

Black Friday, Blue Christmas (CNN.com)
Retailers enjoyed better sales over the weekend than expected. But few believe the good news will last and some fear a wave of bankruptcies ahead.

http://snurl.com/cnn1201r

…But the NRF is predicting just a 2.2% increase in holiday shopping sales this year, which would be the smallest increase since 2002. Even that forecast is considered too rosy by many other industry experts. After all, the healthy sales on Friday may merely be yet another reflection of how weak the economy is: i.e. people rushed out to find the best bargains but may now retreat once the sales are over….

A lackluster holiday shopping season is bad news not just for retailers either, argues Tom Higgins, chief economist with Payden & Rygel, a Los Angeles-based money management firm. Higgins said he’s worried that retailers are going to cut prices so low that it will be difficult, if not impossible, to make a profit during the quarter. And that could eventually lead to more retailers filing for bankruptcy…. [which] could delay an economic recovery since it would cause unemployment to head even higher. “You’re going to see a lot of retailers disappear. That could lead to more layoffs of course,” Higgins said. “That’s our main concern — job losses and the repercussions that will have for consumer spending next year and the housing market.”

[More links as we collect them...]

[Also, stay tuned for Lauren McKay's related news story today, over at destinationCRM.com. I'll add the link here when it's posted.]